Tens of thousands of Democratic primary votes are up for grabs in the Anne Arundel portion of Maryland’s 4th Congressional District race. But it is up for debate whether those votes will play a major role in the outcome of the primary election next year.
What got Larry Hogan to the place where he raises his right hand for the oath as governor is what one Hogan insider concedes was a perfect storm. The right political environment, a message to match it hatched by the candidate himself, a campaigner disciplined enough to communicate it relentlessly, and a campaign that made few mistakes and profited from the lackluster campaigns and mistakes of his competitors.
People are still debating how Republican Larry Hogan won his upset victory for governor over Democrat Anthony Brown. Political consultant Jim Burton offers a key factor in the win by analyzing voter turnout by legislative district. The enthusiasm among Republicans was real and measurable in November’s gubernatorial election.
Professor Allan Lichtman has a wonderful predictive tool for presidential elections called the 13 Keys to the White House that he produced in various editions since he developed it decades ago. He has successfully predicted the winner of five presidential elections months and even years in advance, based on a century and a half of election results.
Lichtman has developed no such tools for gubernatorial races, but some of the “keys” provide guidance for another way to look at why Larry Hogan Jr. won this year.
Democrats are still trying to figure out why they lost the gubernatorial election. Naturally, this process will continue for some time. But Democrats might as well begin by dispensing with some of the popular but unhelpful myths floating around.
“Tonight we fell short of our goal,” Brown told his supporters in his concession speech, “but it does not and cannot diminish the work that each and every one of you has done in our communities throughout our state.” Brown said to hearty applause. “This was a tough campaign because there was a lot at stake and a lot worth fighting for. Governing is difficult, demanding work. Larry and his team have a tough road ahead of them. I wish them the very best as they travel that road.”
First Lady Michelle Obama urged Maryland residents to get out and vote for Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown for governor Monday afternoon at a downtown Baltimore rally in the final hours of the campaign. “We need to do everything in our power to make Anthony Brown the next Governor of Maryland,” said Obama.