In the race to replace Sen. Ben Cardin in the U.S. Senate, former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and Democratic Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are tied in a dead heat, 46% – 46%, with 8% of voters undecided, according to a poll released Tuesday by AARP, the senior citizen lobby.
Among the key 50+ voter demographic, which has higher turnout than younger voters. Hogan has a slim 47% – 45% lead over Alsobrooks.
In the presidential race in Maryland, as expected, Vice President Kamala Harris beats former President Donald Trump by 30 percentage point, 59% to 29%.
The poll of 600 likely voters statewide, plus an oversample of older voters, was conducted Aug. 14-20. It has a margin of error of 4%.
The poll was done by the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D). Here is a link to the full results of the poll.
Overall, 20% of Maryland voters and 16% of 50+ voters are independents. Independents give Hogan a 23-point lead in the Senate race, but also favor Harris by 14 points in the presidential race.
Among older voters, 16% are swing voters – voters who split their votes among candidates of both parties.
Among swing voters, economic issues lead the way, with personal economic issues like inflation, Social Security, jobs and taxes being the top issues they care about.
Swing voters are more likely to be family caregivers: one-third of swing voters 50+ are family caregivers. To these important swing voters, issues like Social Security and Medicare price negotiation stand out as disproportionately important.
Views on Senate candidates
Both Senate candidates have stronger images among voters 50+ than among voters 18-49. A majority of voters in each demographic group regardless of age, party, gender, race, and education have a favorable image of Hogan.
He is remarkably not polarized on his image with only a +35 rating (favorable compared to unfavorable) with his fellow Republicans but managing a +28 rating with Democrats.
One negative sign for Hogan is the only group who view him unfavorably are the Senate undecideds, among whom Alsobrooks is largely unknown. Alsobrooks is best known among her fellow Democrats, with a majority of Independents not holding an opinion of her.
The pollsters interviewed 1,258 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 482 likely voters aged 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 176 Black likely voters age 50 and older.
The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Maryland voter list.
The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.
Recent Comments