In Senate race, Alsobrooks has slight lead over Hogan, 46% to 41%, Gonzales Poll finds.

In Senate race, Alsobrooks has slight lead over Hogan, 46% to 41%, Gonzales Poll finds.

In a 2022 photo before they were running against each other for U.S. Senate, Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and Democratic Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks were happy to announce a project in her county. File photo by Steve Kwak of the Governor's Office, Creative Commons license.

Does Angela Alsobrooks help Democrats keep control of the United States Senate, or does Larry Hogan provide that seat which flips the Senate to the Republicans…this is the question enquiring minds want to know.

Among voters today in Maryland, 46% support Angela Alsobrooks, 41% favor Larry Hogan, 1% vote for someone else, and 11% are undecided. Here are the full results of the poll.

Statewide, 40% have a favorable opinion of Alsobrooks, compared to 7% who have an unfavorable opinion. Thirty-four percent do not yet recognize her name. Any pol would love to be 5 points up two months before an election, with one-third of the electorate being a total blank canvas upon which many pretty pictures can be engraved …keeping in mind, of course, there will be others intent on stamping unflattering images on the slate.

Two-term Governor Larry Hogan remains very popular with voters. Statewide, 50% have a favorable opinion, while 19% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Hogan is that one-off politician who’s viewed favorably by Democrats, Republicans, and independents. But he’s up against an opponent who is herself exceptionally popular within her party base. And in Maryland, a unified election day voice from registered Democrats is a very difficult dynamic to overcome.

Hogan captures 82% of the Republican vote, which is actually 2-points higher than Trump garners in this poll, and the former governor is ahead 40%-31% among unaffiliated voters. Among Democrats, Alsobrooks leads, 72%-21%, with 6% undecided.

For a Republican to win statewide in Maryland it always comes down to basic mathematics…can Hogan snatch away 30% of the Democratic vote to secure victory on Nov. 5?

[Editor’s note: An AARP poll released last week found Alsobrooks and Hogan tied at 46%.]

Methodology

This poll was conducted by Gonzales Research & Media Services, Inc. from August 24th through August 30th, 2024. A total of 820 registered voters in Maryland, who indicated they are likely to vote in the 2024 general election, were queried by live telephone interviews, utilizing both landline and cell phone  numbers. A cross-section of interviews was conducted throughout the state, reflecting general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), per accepted statistical standards, is a range of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. If the entire population was surveyed, there is a 95% probability that the true numbers would fall within this range

About The Author

Patrick Gonzales

Patrick@gonzalesresearch.com

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated magna cum laude from the University of Baltimore with a degree in political science. His career in the field of public opinion research began in the mid-1980s as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research. During this time, Gonzales helped develop, craft and implement election surveys and exit polls for television and radio in the Baltimore-Washington D.C. metro area. Gonzales has polled and analyzed well over a thousand elections in Maryland and across the country since that time. He and his associates have also conducted numerous market research projects, crafting message development plans and generating strategy blueprints for businesses and organizations throughout the state. Over his 35 years conducting public opinion polls, Patrick Gonzales has been widely recognized by his peers for his ability to conduct unbiased surveys, and analyze the results in an impartial, evenhanded manner. Gonzales frequently appears on radio and television in the Baltimore-D.C. region as a guest commentator.